Research

Working papers, journal articles and policy reports. Titles link to the published version; abstracts open in place.
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Working papers7

  • 2026

    Benefit-Cost Analysis of Precision Agriculture for Nitrogen Pollution Reduction: Evidence from the Zelivka Catchment

    with Milan Ščasný, Csilla Farkas, Mikael Skou Andersen and David Zilberman

    Under review Journal of Benefit-Cost Analysis

    Abstract
    This paper presents a social benefit-cost analysis (BCA) of Precision Agriculture (PA) and Enhanced Efficiency Fertilizers (EEF) for reducing nitrate pollution in the Zelivka catchment, the drinking-water source for 1.5 million people in Prague and surrounding regions. The analysis combines field-level data (50,309 ha, 729 farms), meta-analytical biophysical parameters, a dynamic heterogeneous-agent adoption model, and cross-validation against an independent SWAT+ hydrological simulation.
  • 2026

    How Much Measured Irrationality Is One Mistake? Combining the Critical Cost Efficiency and Houtman–Maks Indices

    Under review Research in Economics

  • 2026

    Measured but not moved: what energy poverty indicators record when they evaluate a Social Climate Plan

    with Milan Ščasný

    Under review Energy Policy

  • 2026

    Optimal Inflation Rate: A Meta-Analysis

    with Martin Opatrný, Tomáš Havránek, Z. Havránková and M. Hampl

    Under review Journal of Economic Surveys

  • 2026

    Where agri-environment money goes: biodiversity potential, soil productivity and the Common Agricultural Policy

    with Milan Ščasný

    Under review European Review of Agricultural Economics

  • 2026

    Coherent but Homogeneous: Large Language Model Households in a Budget Microsimulation

    with Milan Ščasný

    Work in progress

  • 2025

    Bridging the Gap: A Novel M2/LIHC Hybrid Indicator Unveils Energy Poverty Dynamics – Case Study of the Czech Republic

    with Milan Ščasný

    IES Working Papers No. 6/2025

    Abstract
    This paper introduces a novel composite energy poverty indicator, the M2LIHC, which combines elements of the twice-median expenditure share (2M) and Low Income High Cost (LIHC) measures. Using a unique dataset merging the Czech Household Budget Survey and EU-SILC data from 2017-2022, we demonstrate how this hybrid approach provides new insights into energy poverty dynamics. The M2LIHC indicator addresses key limitations of existing metrics, avoiding the LIHC measure’s counterintuitive response to income changes in the lowest decile and mitigating the 2M indicator’s potential overestimation of energy poverty among higher-income households with high energy costs. Our comparative analysis reveals significant differences in energy poverty rates and household characteristics identified by each indicator. The M2LIHC measure proves more robust to income fluctuations than LIHC while maintaining sensitivity to both income and energy cost components. We find energy poverty in the Czech Republic has increased across all indicators from 2017 to 2022, with the M2LIHC indicator suggesting a rise from 8.9% to 13.5%. To further validate our approach, we employ the DASMOD (Distributional And Social Impact Model) to simulate various energy and climate policy scenarios. These simulations demonstrate the complex effects of compensation policies on energy poverty measures, with M2LIHC providing a more nuanced view of policy impacts. By providing a more comprehensive and theoretically consistent measure of energy poverty, coupled with policy simulation capabilities, the M2LIHC indicator offers policymakers an improved tool for targeting support and assessing the effectiveness of energy poverty alleviation strategies in the context of energy transitions and climate policies.
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Publications10

  • In press

    Publication Bias and Model Uncertainty in Measuring the Effect of Class Size on Achievement

    with Tomáš Havránek, Zuzana Irsova and Milan Ščasný

    Journal of Labor Economics Forthcoming

    DOI
    Abstract
    Class size reduction mandates are routinely justified by studies reporting positive effects on student achievement. Yet other studies report no effects, and the literature as a whole awaits correction for potential publication bias. Moreover, if identification drives results systematically, the relevance of individual studies will vary. We build a sample of 2,819 estimates collected from 66 studies and for each estimate classify 42 factors that reflect estimation context. We employ nonlinear techniques for publication bias correction and model averaging techniques to address model uncertainty. The results are consistent with little publication bias. The implied class size effect is negligible for all identification approaches except Tennessee’s Student/Teacher Achievement Ratio project and for all contexts except classes of fewer than 15 students.
  • 2026

    Elasticity of marginal utility of consumption: the equal-sacrifice approach applied for the Czech Republic

    with Milan Ščasný

    The Journal of Economic Inequality, 24(1), 261–281

    DOI
    Abstract
    We provide the first estimate of the elasticity of marginal utility of consumption, μ, for a post-transition economy in the Central & Eastern European region – the Czech Republic – based on household-level data. Using the absolute equal-sacrifice income tax approach, we obtain a central estimate of μ at 1.47, which varies between 1.32 to 1.66 within the study period covering 2005–2022. Moreover, the estimate of the elasticity of marginal utility of consumption differs between various income groups, indicating that this approach is suitable only for those who pay income tax. Including the non-taxpayers segment means ceteris paribus negative μ, and hence its smaller value for the entire population. Importantly, the μ estimate increases when social benefits are included in gross income, and it decreases when social and health insurance contributions are included in the definition of taxes. Since parameter μ is a crucial component of the social discount rate, our result provides useful input for policies that affect intertemporal allocations.
  • 2026

    New estimates of the elasticity of marginal utility of consumption for Europe

    with Milan Ščasný

    Empirical Economics, 70(6), Article 91

    DOI
    Abstract
    We estimate the elasticity of marginal utility of consumption (μ) for Europe and 32 individual European countries using household-level income tax data. Specifically, we rely on the absolute equal-sacrifice approach to elicit the revealed preferences of income taxpayers on their political preference for income redistribution. Our central estimate of μ equals 1.43. With few exceptions, μ’s for European countries exceed unity, ranging between 1.2 and 1.94. We discuss the implications of our estimates for inequality measurement, benefit transfer, and the social discount rate.
  • 2026

    Reporting Guidelines for Meta-Analysis in Economics—Updated for AI

    with Nikolai Cook, František Bartoš and 10 others

    Journal of Economic Surveys

    DOI
    Abstract
    Meta-analysis is how science takes stock of its vast research output. The advent of increasingly capable artificial intelligence (AI) promises an unprecedented ability to identify and synthesize relevant research and its findings. In this document, the meta-analysis of economics research network (MAER-Net) updates existing Reporting Guidelines to be consistent with community-driven best practices for the responsible use and disclosure of AI-assistance in meta-analysis research. This update is meant to further improve the transparency, replicability, and quality of meta-analyses by building upon the 2020 and 2013 Reporting Guidelines published by this Journal. Cook et al. (2026) describe the guiding principles behind the update. Future meta-analyses, whether or not they use AI, are expected to follow these updated guidelines or to be prepared to give reasons if they deviate from them.
  • 2026

    Volumetric choice experiments and welfare measures in a subsidy-driven context

    with Wiktor Budziński, Mikołaj Czajkowski and 10 others

    Resource and Energy Economics, 86, Article 101572

    DOI
    Abstract
    Volumetric Choice Experiments (VCE) offer a novel approach to studying individual behavior, traditionally explored through Discrete Choice Experiments. This study assesses the efficacy of VCE in understanding farmers' preferences regarding new results-based and practice-based agri-environmental contracts, using a comprehensive international stated preference survey. Recognizing that farmers often act as households maximizing utility rather than purely profit-driven producers, we provide justification for applying a utility-based framework in this context. The subsidy-driven nature of agri-environmental contracts poses a challenge for the use of multiple discrete-continuous choice models suited for VCE data. Conventionally, these models utilize an income-based budget equation, which would not be binding given the willingness-to-accept format of the experiment. To operationalize our model, we adopt a land-based budget equation, facilitating the development of a novel compensating variation measure for welfare analysis. Our findings reveal insightful contrasts between VCE-derived data and traditional DCE results, highlighting the complexities encountered and the comparability of outcomes. By delving into the distinct attributes of VCE and justifying the utility-based approach for farmers, this research not only bridges a critical gap in the literature but also enhances our understanding of farmer behavior, with significant implications for the design and implementation of future agri-environmental policies.
  • 2025

    Conventional wisdom, meta-analysis, and research revision in economics

    with Sebastian Gechert, Bianka Mey and 7 others

    Journal of Economic Surveys, 39(3), 980–999

    DOI
    Abstract
    Over the past several decades, meta-analysis has emerged as a widely accepted tool to understand economics research. Meta-analyses often challenge the established conventional wisdom of their respective fields. We systematically review a wide range of influential meta-analyses in economics and compare them to “conventional wisdom.” After correcting for observable biases, the empirical economic effects are typically much closer to zero and sometimes switch signs. Typically, the relative reduction in effect sizes is 45%–60%.
  • 2023

    Assessment of the impact of agricultural support on crop diversity

    with Zdeňka Žáková Kroupová, Lukáš Čechura, Zuzana Hloušková and Iveta Mlezivová

    Agricultural Economics (Zemědělská ekonomika), 69(3), 89–100

    DOI
    Abstract
    This study examines the impact of agricultural support on crop diversity measured by a diversity index. Our results indicate that agricultural subsidies have a limited effect on agricultural biodiversity. By using unique farm-level data, we show that subsidies support the income of farmers rather than the agricultural biodiversity. The results are robust regarding the size, practice management and altitude of the agricultural holdings' operations and various measures of agricultural biodiversity. However, when interpreting the results, the limitations of biodiversity indices should be considered.
  • 2021

    The impact of the Brexit vote on UK financial markets: a synthetic control method approach

    Empirica, 48(2), 559–587

    DOI
    Abstract
    We estimate how the UK financial markets would have evolved if the Remain camp had won the referendum. To construct the counterfactual, we use the synthetic control method. Our results suggest that there would not have been any significant change in the development of the FTSE 100 Index in the medium to long term if there had not been a referendum. On the other hand, we find a significantly negative effect of 1.2 percentage points on the 10-year bond yield. Given the geopolitical circumstances in mid 2016, financial agents investing in the pound could have sought safer investment options represented by longer-term government bonds, which consequently could result in lower bond yields.
  • 2020

    The Impact of EU Accession on Farm Production in the Czech Republic: A Synthetic Control Method Approach

    Czech Journal of Economics and Finance, 70(3), 281–307

    DOI
    Abstract
    Czech farmers experienced an enormous exogenous shock when they joined the common agricultural market (CAM) and the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) in 2004. Using the World Bank's dataset, we apply the synthetic control method to establish a counterfactual case of the Czech Republic food production index in the absence of the CAM and CAP. The results show that the Czech Republic would have had a higher food index if it had not entered the CAM and CAP. Moreover, we show that the CAP and CAM had different impacts on farms in the Czech Republic and Bulgaria, which have the most comparable agriculture according to the results of the synthetic control method.
  • 2017

    Quantifying the Effects of the CNB's Exchange Rate Commitment: A Synthetic Control Method Approach

    Czech Journal of Economics and Finance, 67(6), 539–577

    Video
    Abstract
    In this paper I evaluate the quantitative effects of the Czech National Bank's commitment to keep the Koruna from appreciating that were put in place in 2013. I focus on the policy's impact on output, unemployment, and inflation. I use the synthetic control method, which allows me to compute the counter-factual development of the Czech economy in the absence of the commitment. I find that the commitment helped decrease unemployment substantially. The effect on overall output is also strongly positive, almost 2 percentage points for growth in 2015, but only marginally statistically significant, which might be connected to disturbances created by changes in excise taxes. The effect of the commitment on inflation is positive but not statistically significant at standard levels.
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